Jason Crawford joins us to discuss his Techno-Humanist Manifesto and explore the idea that humans are fundamentally “problem-solving animals” who continuously overcome constraints on progress. We discuss cultural bottlenecks to progress, including the need for better education about industrial history, the case for producing more positive portrayals of science and technology in media, and why philanthropists should focus more on backing risky & early-stage projects. Jason also shares his thoughts around how AI might affect TFP and help us avoid stagnation, and why mathematics might be especially poised for acceleration.
Groups and projects mentioned
Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? Also see related writing by Matt Clancy
Machines of Loving Grace by Dario Amodei
The Case for Clinical Trial Abundance by Willy Chertman and Ruxandra Tesloianu
We Need a New Science of Progress By Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen
[00:00:38] The Techno-Humanist Manifesto
[00:02:58] The Problem Solving Animal; Overcoming Constraints on Progress
[00:05:36] Cultural bottlenecks that affect progress
[00:09:13] Scaling the Progress Philosophy in Education
[00:10:16] Expanding storytelling & cultural channels for progress
[00:11:23] Progress in Problem Selection
[00:13:56] The role of social status and prestige in problem selection
[00:15:05] Philanthropic attitudes towards risk and early-stage projects
[00:19:17] Where AI can be most helpful in escaping stagnation; Mathematics especially poised for acceleration
[00:21:56] The impact of the internet on GDP and TFP relative to AI's impact of growth and TFP
[00:23:28] Causes in the Progress Movement that warrant more attention
[00:26:14] Jason's Model of Progress
[00:29:35] Metaphors for progress; The Flywheel
[00:37:29] How the Progress Movement has grown over time
